The Primary Showdown
An In-Depth Look at the 2025 NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary
Prediction
Prediction Model Run: Loading...
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Win Probability
Projected Result
Final Vote Share: vs
Projected Victory Margin: --
Prediction Model: Key Inputs
Our model's prediction synthesizes multiple data sources and factors. Here are the key variables included in the analysis.
Early Vote & Youth Surge
Analysis shows differential early voting patterns by candidate, with higher youth participation than historical averages.
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Early Vote Differential
from -- total early votes
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Youth Vote vs. Historical Rate
Comparison to previous primary elections
Election Day Heatwave
Extreme heat is projected to impact turnout differentially by age group, with older voters historically showing higher sensitivity to weather conditions.
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Forecasted High Temperature
with -- of poll sites lacking AC
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Turnout Reduction for 65+
vs. only -- for voters under 35
Campaign Momentum
Polling trends in the final weeks provided a significant tailwind for the Mamdani campaign, helping to close the gap with Cuomo.
+1.5%
Momentum Shift
Voters shifting from Cuomo to Mamdani based on polling trends.
RCV Dynamics
Ranked-Choice Voting dynamics show varying transfer patterns between candidates based on endorsements and voter preferences.
46%
Lander-to-Mamdani Transfers
Transfer rates based on historical patterns and current endorsements.
Prediction Details: Ranked-Choice Voting Simulation
Our model simulates the Ranked-Choice Voting process round-by-round to determine the projected outcome based on polling data and transfer patterns.
Model Uncertainty Analysis
Our model runs 100,000 simulations to capture all sources of uncertainty and provide a realistic range of possible outcomes.
95% Confidence Interval
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Based on -- Monte Carlo simulations
Sources of Uncertainty:
- • Polling error (±3.5%)
- • Early vote split (±5%)
- • RCV transfers (±10%)
- • Heat impact (±10%)
What this means:
If the election were held 100 times, we'd expect Mamdani's vote share to fall within this range 95 times.
Campaign Resources and Support
Andrew Cuomo: Campaign Finance
Cuomo's campaign benefits from significant Super PAC support.
"Fix the City" PAC Spending
$16M+
Supported by major donors including Michael Bloomberg.
Key Endorsers
- Bill Clinton
- Michael Bloomberg
- 32BJ SEIU & 1199SEIU
- NY Daily News
Zohran Mamdani: Campaign Operations
Mamdani's campaign relies primarily on volunteer mobilization and small-dollar contributions.
Mobilized Volunteers
46,000
The campaign reports over 1 million door knocks across the city.
Key Endorsers
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Bernie Sanders
- Working Families Party
- Brad Lander
Key Factors in the Analysis
Several factors contribute to the model's projections, including weather conditions, polling trends, and early voting patterns.
Election Day Heatwave
--
A severe heatwave and lack of AC at -- of poll sites could be catastrophic for Cuomo's older base.
Mamdani's Momentum
+14 pts
Mamdani's support surged from 18% to 32% in the final polls, while Cuomo's remained stagnant.
Banked Vote Lead
--
Current early vote tallies show differential support among the -- ballots already cast.
Early Voting by Borough
Early vote turnout varied significantly by borough, with Brooklyn and Manhattan accounting for 69% of all early votes cast.
Polling Trends Over Time
Polling data shows evolving voter preferences throughout the campaign, with significant movement in the final weeks that has narrowed the margin between candidates.
Demographic Support Patterns
The candidates draw support from different demographic groups, with variations by age, education, and community.
Data from the final Emerson College poll shows the candidates' final-round support across key demographic groups.
Voter Issue Priorities
Voters prioritize different issues, with housing costs and crime emerging as leading concerns among different segments of the electorate.
Top Issue for Mamdani Voters
Top Issue for Cuomo Voters
Sources
NYC Primary 2025 Prediction Model - Full Code and Methodology
Emerson College Polling - June 2025 NYC Democratic Primary Survey
NYC Board of Elections - Early Voting Turnout Results
NYC Campaign Finance Board - 2025 Mayoral Race Financial Disclosures